PerilScope: Russia’s Deepening Confrontation with the West—A Long War Unfolding: The Architecture of a Prolonged Confrontation

The warnings have been consistent. The intelligence agencies of Finland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Sweden, and Czechia—each attuned to the tremors of geopolitical instability—have issued reports signaling the same conclusion: Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO and the West. The repetition of this message, across nations with distinct historical perspectives and intelligence networks, is neither coincidence nor rhetorical excess. It is a pattern, one that underscores the systematic and deliberate nature of Russia’s trajectory.

What we are witnessing is not merely a protracted war in Ukraine, but a transformation of the Russian state itself—a structural shift toward a war economy, a militarized society, and a confrontational doctrine that extends far beyond the battlefields of the Donbas. The Kremlin has moved past the phase of reactive conflict management and into a sustained strategic posture that envisions an enduring standoff with the West. The implications of this shift are profound.

At the core of this strategy is a fundamental reframing of Russia’s geopolitical narrative. No longer does Moscow see itself as engaged in a discrete territorial war in Ukraine; instead, it has positioned itself as the vanguard of a civilizational struggle against the collective West. This is reflected in both the rhetoric of the Kremlin and its material preparations. The ideological scaffolding of this confrontation is visible in Russia’s official documents, military restructuring, and the steady dismantling of its pre-war economic and social order in favor of wartime consolidation.

This is not a temporary recalibration. It is the deliberate reorientation of an entire state apparatus toward long-term conflict.

The Military-Industrial Realignment

Nowhere is Russia’s shift toward long-term confrontation more evident than in its military-industrial policy. The defense budget for 2024 soared to a staggering 6% of GDP, the highest since the Soviet era, eclipsing social spending and cementing the priority of the war effort. This figure, while striking in isolation, is even more significant when placed in the context of the Kremlin’s strategic trajectory: not only has defense spending nearly doubled in the past two years, but additional increases are already planned for 2025 and beyond. The implication is clear—Russia is not merely sustaining its military operations in Ukraine but is preparing for a broader, more enduring struggle.

One of the most critical elements of this realignment has been the expansion of the Russian military. Legislation signed in 2023 raised the conscription age limit and enabled digital draft notices, closing loopholes that previously allowed some to evade service. The Kremlin’s stated goal is to increase its active force size to 1.5 million personnel, an increase of over 30% from pre-war levels. Simultaneously, Russia has activated 14 new divisions and accelerated the formation of reserve battalions, ensuring that it retains the manpower necessary to sustain an extended conflict.

The scale of Russia’s rearmament is also striking. Western analysts have been forced to revise downward their initial assessments of Russia’s ability to replenish lost equipment. A year ago, the consensus among military experts was that Russian arms production would falter under the weight of sanctions. Instead, Russia has outpaced Western expectations, producing an estimated 250,000 artillery shells per month—double the combined output of the United States and European NATO members. Likewise, its tank production and refurbishment programs have been scaled up, allowing it to field replacement vehicles at a rate that mitigates its battlefield losses.

Satellite imagery provides further evidence of Russia’s preparations. In Kaliningrad, military bases have been expanded, special forces training facilities enlarged, and hardened storage bunkers constructed, likely for nuclear-capable Iskander missiles. In Belarus, formerly dormant Soviet-era military sites have been repurposed, with new infrastructure appearing in strategic locations. This pattern of military consolidation and expansion suggests that Moscow is not merely sustaining its war effort in Ukraine but preparing for broader contingencies in the future.

The Digital and Covert Dimensions of Warfare

While much of the Western discourse has focused on Russia’s conventional military buildup, the Kremlin has also intensified its hybrid warfare campaign, employing a vast array of cyber, intelligence, and disinformation operations to undermine NATO cohesion.

Cyber operations have been a persistent component of Russia’s strategy, but the scale and audacity of its attacks have increased markedly in the past year. NATO and EU institutions have been targeted by sophisticated phishing campaigns, while Russian-affiliated hacking groups have carried out sustained Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks on European government websites and airports. The security services of multiple NATO states have traced a campaign of cyber-espionage to Russian intelligence units, revealing a long-term effort to compromise diplomatic, military, and corporate networks.

Covert sabotage operations have also surged across Europe. In multiple countries, plots to bomb military supply depots, energy infrastructure, and Ukrainian-linked institutions have been uncovered and foiled. European intelligence agencies report a growing network of Russian operatives working through proxy groups, exploiting political divisions and radical movements to stage destabilization efforts. The intent is clear: to create an atmosphere of uncertainty, to disrupt the logistical and economic underpinnings of NATO’s support for Ukraine, and to test the resilience of European security institutions.

Alongside these covert operations, Russia has waged an aggressive disinformation and psychological warfare campaign. Kremlin-backed media outlets and social media influence operations have pushed narratives designed to fracture Western unity. Themes include anti-refugee sentiment, energy crisis narratives, and manufactured scandals aimed at undermining pro-Ukraine governments in NATO states. Moscow’s disinformation efforts are not random—they are surgically applied to existing political and social divisions, exploiting vulnerabilities in democratic systems.

Economic Adaptation and the Resilience of the War Economy

If Moscow’s military and cyber strategies reflect its preparation for a prolonged confrontation, its economic maneuvers illustrate how it intends to sustain this struggle. The widespread belief in 2022 that Western sanctions would cripple the Russian economy has proven overly optimistic. While initial economic contractions occurred, the Kremlin has successfully diverted trade routes, built parallel financial systems, and deepened economic cooperation with China, India, and other non-Western partners.

A key element of this economic resilience has been the rapid expansion of Russia’s shadow economy, which facilitates the continued flow of sanctioned goods. The Kremlin has utilized third-party intermediaries in Turkey, the UAE, and Central Asia to procure critical technologies, including semiconductors and industrial machinery essential for weapons production. The G7 oil price cap, intended to limit Moscow’s revenue, has been partially circumvented through a “shadow fleet” of tankers that obfuscate the origin and destination of Russian crude exports. As a result, Russia has maintained robust energy revenues, sustaining both its war machine and domestic stability.

Domestically, the Russian government has undertaken a managed transition toward a wartime economic model, directing resources toward defense industries and social policies that support military expansion. Labor shortages have emerged as a structural challenge, as hundreds of thousands of working-age men have either been mobilized or fled abroad, but the Kremlin has offset this strain by expanding the use of prison labor and coercive work policies.

A Conflict Without a Horizon

The cumulative weight of these developments points to a conflict that is not only persistent but structural. Russia is no longer reacting to immediate battlefield conditions or temporary economic pressures—it is shaping itself into a state designed for long-term confrontation.

The challenge for NATO is not merely military or economic; it is strategic. The Kremlin’s calculus appears to be that time is on its side—that Western unity will erode, that economic disruptions will create domestic political pressures, and that internal divisions will weaken the resolve of NATO states. The reality is that Moscow is betting on Western exhaustion while it constructs a war economy capable of sustaining the struggle indefinitely.

If the trajectory continues, the West will not be facing just a prolonged war in Ukraine but a fundamentally reconfigured Russia, one that sees conflict with the West not as a policy choice, but as a permanent condition.

A war without a horizon.

Source : Ivan Savov, FARPI CRPS